Stats & Analytics

How the predictions are made and how they've done

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Today's predictions by confidence

Every upcoming match with a prediction, by band.

Live record

Predictions are locked at kick-off and checked at full time.

Backtest on real past results

Method

  1. Inputs (real data only): each team's last-5 form and its competition record (points per game in football, win % elsewhere), from the public scoreboard feeds.
  2. Small samples are pulled toward 50/50 so a 2-0 start isn't treated as a sure thing.
  3. Home advantage: a small edge unless the venue is neutral.
  4. Win chance: a logistic curve on the gap, its steepness fitted per league on last season and checked on this season. Football keeps a draw share (Home Win / Draw / Away Win).
  5. Caps: at most 90% in NBA, NFL and college football (backtested), 80% everywhere else.
  6. No data, no number: without real results for both sides the card says “Insufficient Data”.

More on the method · See today's predictions